Diaspora got a lot of attention as they used a Kickstarter campaign to raise over $170,000 as the “open Facebook alternative”, following another round of Facebook privacy complications.
In Diaspora’s Curse, Jason Fried went on to illustrate that while that’s an impressive start (if you measure victory in press coverage and cash), those things will likely be detrimental to Diaspora’s long term success. It is not impossible, but the probability is reduced.
The points of the argument?
They have too much money
They’re at $170,000 today (Sunday, May 16, 2010). They’ll likely continue to pile up the donations until their Kickstarter campaign ends 16 days from now. All this money without an actual product is a liability. Money gives them too much time and too much comfort to take on a fast moving incumbent like Facebook. Their cash to code ratio is out of whack. A good enough first version will take longer to produce with $170K than it would have with $0K.
The spotlight is on too early
You want attention after you’re good, not before. Obscurity is your friend when you’re just starting — especially when you don’t even have a product yet. You don’t need the pressure of outside opinion or the press breathing down your neck before you have anything to show. Millions of eyes — including your competition — watching you every step of the way doesn’t help. All this attention is a distraction. Ship, then seek the spotlight.
Expectations are too high
Some people are really pissed at Facebook right now. Those people are looking for a way to channel this negative energy into a movement. Along comes Diaspora. Diaspora becomes their horse in the race. They want that horse to win. They believe it can win. Their unlimited hopes and dreams of the anti-Facebook are transferred to Diaspora. Diaspora becomes everything and anything to anyone who wants to believe. How can anyone deliver on boundless expectations? Diaspora can’t match the fantasy of Diaspora.
Now look at those same arguments and apply them to Kickstarter – who have been going for over a year now, have a strong platform ready to scale, and have been gaining some solid momentum while waiting for their time in the spotlight to show the world what they do. The conditions are right, and Diaspora just provided the opportunity.
This could be Kickstarter’s “Twitter at SXSW” moment.
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Analysis of Kickstarter numbers for Artspace Tokyo
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